Super Week has come and gone, and the data left behind is extremely meaningful due to one important change that hit the competitive field right before the games: the Doran’s Shield nerf.
Doran’s Shield is the most bought starting item in the game, with well over a 50% purchase rate in bot lane and top lane, and a considerable purchase rate in mid. However, it lost 20% of its health and 40% of its health regen with the most recent nerf.
As well, Spellthief’s Edge was changed in a way that is probably a buff.
So what do we see in our pick/win rates lane by lane as a result of these changes?
Last week, I had this to say: with the Doran’s Shield nerfs coming through, I predict Shyvana and Dr. Mundo falling slightly out of favor, with Renekton sticking around as a generally strong laner, and Trundle as a strong Renekton counter. As well, champions who have strong sustain from their kits or builds — Irelia/Aatrox/Jax — or strong poke — Jayce — might be able to force champions out of lane without the the oppressive regen of Doran’s Shield. Who knows, maybe we’ll even see more Warwick!
Our first prediction is pretty easy to see: Renekton remains the top pick, but his win rate skyrocketed. His win rate jumped from sub-50% vs Trundle and Shyvana to 60% and 80% respectively.
Trundle also jumped up to the #2 spot, even in North America (where he had previously seen limited play). Why? Without Doran’s Shield as a safe start available to them, he now beats Shyvana and Mundo in lane hard enough to snowball a huge advantage. Shyvana was matched up against Trundle 5 times, going 1-2 with Doran’s Shield, and 1-1 with Cloth Armor.
I think it’s more likely that the days of Shyvana top are over. Without Doran’s Shield’s sustain to to keep her and Dr. Mundo afloat, they went a combined 3-12. I think it’s safe to say that the meta should see some shaking up top lane.
And while Irelia wasn’t nearly as impressive, Wickd’s 3-0 on her was certainly notable.
Aatrox only managed a 50% win rate, but was picked more times during Super Week than he has been in the first 7 weeks.
We even had a 1-0 from Jayce and a 1-0 — not to mention thrice-banned — Ryze (a champion I’ve been hyping since my review of Patch 4.3 2 weeks ago).
Ok, so there wasn’t any Warwick top, and our data pool isn’t as large as it could be, but I’m feeling pretty good about my predictions top lane. Let’s keep a focus on top lane over the next few weeks to see if this trend continues.
Last week, I came out in support of Vi, Lee Sin, and Pantheon. I also labeled Elise a situational pick vs only Vi and Eve, called Wukong bad except vs Elise, and didn’t even find Kha’Zix noteworthy (especially with the nerfs he just got). What did we get over Super Week?
Where did Evelynn come from? I feel like I dropped the ball on her rise. She was the most-picked jungler, with a decent win-rate to boot. Then again, her win rate was only 50%, and Elise still fared well against Evelynn. I want to see another week or two of data before I hype her. Teams like C9 and TSM seemed to know exactly how to deal with Evelynn, with all of her wins coming against CST and XDG.
Vi, Lee, and Pantheon all did well, as expected.
Wukong continued to disappoint (although his only win was vs Elise, predictably) and Kha’Zix fell off of the edge of the earth with his recent nerfs.
Minus the many Evelynn picks, jungle went about as expected; there simply weren’t any major changes to the jungle from previous weeks.
Perhaps I shouldn’t be so tentative to make conclusions about mid lane based on the data through Week 7, as the data was mostly born out.
Gragas did well, thanks to LeBlanc and Ziggs being good matchups of his.
Otherwise, Nidalee, LeBlanc, and Lulu continued their dominance. That, and we learned why you ban Kassadin.
The only champions who didn’t perform as normal were Kha’Zix and Ziggs, who both suffered from a lower win rate.
Last week, I was hoping for more Sivir play (especially from non-WildTurtle ADCs) and less Lucian play.
It looks like I only got one of the things I wanted, but it also looks like we’re approaching a tipping point in the ADC meta: Caitlyn continues to be dominant over Jinx (4-1) and Sivir (2-0), and Lucian is the only ADC who can handle Caitlyn (5-5). Sivir dominated Lucian 5-0, though, so he may not be a safe pick for long, as more and more ADCs (7 this week) pick him up. Look to see Lucian, Caitlyn, and Sivir remain the dominant picks, with Jinx only picked up when Caitlyn is not a threat.
The support results we expected to see are simple: less Leona as more Morgana comes out.
At support, Thresh continues to be dominant, with a 50%+ record vs every other major support. Not too much to say here, although Leona players appear to have learned to play against Morgana supports.
But the big changes at support came in the items. After its rework, Spellthief’s Edge was purchased more this week than the rest of the season.
Annie started with Doran’s Ring twice (2-0), Spellthief’s Edge 4 times (1-3), and Doran’s Shield 9 times (4-5)
Morgana started with Spellthief’s Edge 10 times (4-6) and Doran’s Shield 5 times (3-2)
With the Doran’s Shield nerfs, Leona picked up Relic Shield 4 times out of 11, going 3-1.
Riot wanted to shake up picks and itemization — especially top lane and support — with the changes to Doran’s Shield and the support gold items, and they succeeded. The changes I’ve outlined might seem minor, but if this is how much of a shift we see in week 1, we can be relatively certain that we’ll see more changes as time goes on. And the changes won’t stop there. With the potential for more damage champions top, tanky junglers and supports become more attractive, while ADCs will have fewer meat walls in their faces. I don’t know what the meta will look like by the playoffs, but I expect it to be somewhat different from the one we had for the first 7 weeks of the 2014 Spring Split.