This week is full of exciting matches, but the biggest stories for sure are Gambit Gaming vs Fnatic and ROCCAT vs Fnatic. ROCCAT and Fnatic have never met before, so let’s dive into the matchup and see what to expect!
Edit: ROCCAT leaves Jinx up for Rekkles? I’m feeling pretty bad about my prediction now. They did force Jinx into a 2v1 lane with the Trundle pick vs Mundo, but I still can’t feel great about this, especially with Trundle’s 1v2 weakness.
I’ve spoken enough to the virtues of Fnatic elsewhere, but let’s summarize by saying that they are unpredictable, composed, and extremely talented.
sOAZ has been an absolute beast this season thus far. He has taken to the tank meta easily, going 3-0 with a 10+ KDA on Mundo/Renekton. However, if anything, he looks more comfortable breaking the meta, busting out Trundle with a stunning 16 KDA, and looking to the past with a 14 KDA Shen game. He doesn’t make the flashiest plays for kills, but rarely dies and contributes heavily to teamfights.
Cyanide, much like Meteos, has split his games between Vi and Elise. He has pulled in a ridiculous 21 KDA on Elise, using her versatility to make early plays and mid-game picks. However, his performances on Vi have not been bad, minus one slow game vs Alliance.
xPeke is a playmaker. At a time when most mids are upgrading their boots after their second big purchase, xPeke is getting boots after his first big purchase in every game, save for one (which ended in under 30 minutes). With those boots, he roams and makes plays.
If anything, Rekkles was under-hyped. He has completely dominated the ADCs in Europe. He has yet to die on Jinx, running a KDA of 46. His backup plan when Jinx was unavailable has been Caitlyn, where he has maintained a more average 5.75 KDA.
While Yellowstar has been best on Annie and Thresh, he has played a different support in every game. Good luck banning him out. His lowest KDA was 3, on Lulu, and he’s achieved a 9+ KDA on every other support he’s played thus far..
Like sOAZ, Xaxus seems to be comfortable on Mundo/Renekton, but he has also played Malphite top, to great success. And like sOAZ, he’s not making any more plays for kills, or out-teamfighting for assists. He simply doesn’t die, with 7 deaths over 6 games.
Jankos is the real story behind ROCCAT. He is an extremely aggressive, snowbally jungler. He currently has as many kills — one more, in fact — as Celaver, the team’s ADC. He has played largely squishy, snowball oriented junglers, picking up Elise, Evelynn, Lee Sin, and Pantheon. While junglers have elected to build a jungle item other than Ancient Golem 11/48 times, he has done so 3 times in his 6 games, and is the only jungler to have bought Spectral Wraith at all.
If ROCCAT has a weakness, it’s their mid laner, Overpow. His KDA is largely carried by his dominant Kayle game vs Gambit Gaming, and without out it, he runs a 3.8 KDA, barely over the average of 3.1. As well, his lack of a consistent style forces ROCCAT to build teams around him. He plays assassins, roamers, and pushers. He’ll have to step up hard to deal with xPeke, and with ROCCAT on blue side, he likely won’t get to counter-pick.
It seems a lot like Celaver’s job is to hang back, not die, and clean up, while pushing towers when needed. While he does that excellently, it’s hard to see him outperforming Rekkles, especially with Jinx in play. He has 5 of his 6 games on Caitlyn, and the 6th on Lucian.
VandeR is a great support, but like Celaver, he’s untested off of his favorite champion, with a disappointing Lulu game and a decent Morgana counter-pick to Leona. Much like Celaver, he doesn’t die much, and this bot lane has died an average of 2.16 times per game, compared with a league average of 5.
Rekkles has a KDA of 46 on Jinx, but only 4 on Caitlyn.
sOAZ and xPeke have champ pools far too deep to affect, but Kassadin is extremely dangerous
YellowStar has played Thresh and Annie extremely well
Cyanide has focused on Elise/Vi.
Celaver has played mostly CaitlynVandeR has played mostly Thresh
ROCCAT has to ban or first-pick:
This leaves them with a more general ban. They have banned Vi in 4/6 games, Annie in 3 games, and Elise in 2 games. All of these bans would be good vs Fnatic.
However, it also leaves them with a serious problem. With Jinx banned, Rekkles tends to fall back on Caitlyn, ROCCAT’s priority ADC pick. This means that they probably have to first-pick Caitlyn, leaving Thresh open for YellowStar, and keeping him out of the hands of VandeR. The only way to secure both champions would be to leave open two champions Fnatic has to pick, and giving Fnatic Jinx and Kassadin seems like a mistake.
Even if they do make this plan, nothing keeps Fnatic from simply banning Caitlyn and Thresh. They have banned Riven twice, so will probably do so again vs Overpow, who has picked Riven twice. Their only other repeat bans have been Elise (whom they would want to pick after a Vi ban) and Yasuo (and we don’t even know if Overpow can play Yasuo).
It seems to me that ROCCAT should assume that their bot lane will be forced onto uncomfortable ground, and focus elsewhere. If Caitlyn and Thresh are banned, they can use their third ban on Vi, and first-pick Elise, forcing Cyanide to reveal a new jungler, and Rekkles to reveal a new mid. Since Cyanide, Rekkles, VandeR, and Celaver are the only players who have shown signs of a weak champion pool, the rest will be less predictable.
We should expect Mundo, Renekton, or Malphite out of Xaxus, and Mundo, Renekton, Trundle, or Shen out of sOAZ.
Malphite vs Renekton should probably weigh in favor of Malphite, in both 1v1 and 2v1 lanes, so I don’t expect sOAZ to pick Renekton. After all, if Xaxus picks Mundo, we should expect the Trundle pick out of sOAZ.
There is one more consideration. Fnatic has forced the 2v1 whenever they run Caitlyn. With Cait and Jinx out of the picture, I expect a 1v1, personally, but it’s hard to say without seeing more of Rekkles’ champion pool. Trundle vs Mundo is definitely a 1v1 pick, so if Fnatic intends to 1v2, everything changes. However, given the strength of Malphite in 1v2, I’d expect Fnatic to avoid that, just in case.
It’s unlikely that ROCCAT lets Vi through, given their and Cyanide’s record, and at that point first-picking Elise just seems natural. If this happens, who knows what we’ll see from Cyanide! I like the potential for Jankos to snowball, in this matchup.
I’m probably expecting Gragas or Orianna out of xPeke. It’s going to be hard for ROCCAT to deal with those champions, but using bans on xPeke seems a desperate and doomed endeavor, as Cloud9 found out at Worlds. If Jankos can’t put pressure on this lane, I worry about ROCCAT’s chances.
With no bans, we’d probably see Caitlyn Thresh vs Jinx anything, and we’d probably see Rekkles snowball out of control. I’m expecting to see bans on at least Thresh and Jinx, so we’ll get to see new blood in bot lane. Rekkles is obviously no one-hit wonder, but it will be interesting to see him on a new champion. Celaver, needs to prove himself on other ADCs. He’s fallen back on Lucian once, so that’s the likeliest guess, but Lucian has struggled in LCS.
Xaxus vs sOAZ – can one outpick/play the other? They both have dominated top lane, so it’ll be interesting to see them collide. If they go even or 2v1, Malphite should outscale anything sOAZ has, but if sOAZ’s snowball potential is probably higher, given the option of Trundle or Shen.
Jankos vs Cyanide – Jankos has the potential to snowball the game early. If he can do that top or mid, it could mean a lot for his team.
xPeke vs Overpow – Overpow will need help to win this lane.
Celaver/VandeR vs Rekkles/YellowStar – If they’re on their familiar champions, smart money goes to Rekkles. Who knows what their B-stringers look like though.
Mattias “Gentleman Gustaf” Lehman is a big time nerd-gamer who has been involved in both SC2 and LoL. He has ranked as high as Diamond 1 in solo queue and Diamond 3 in arranged 5s.
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